The prospect of the United States green-lighting the sale of advanced F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia—long sought by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS)—has reverberated across global capitals, signaling a dramatic inflection point in Middle Eastern geopolitics. While the decision itself marks a major evolution in U.S.–Saudi security cooperation, it is widely viewed as only the first phase of a broader strategic recalibration involving Washington, Riyadh, and the emerging regional order.
- A Decision Years in the Making
- Why Saudi Arabia Wants the F-35—and What It Means
- Key Saudi motivations include:
- 1. Strategic Deterrence Against Iran
- 2. Regional Leadership and Symbolic Power
- 3. Military Modernization and Technology Transfer
- 4. Alignment with U.S. Security Architecture
- A Shift in Washington’s Middle East Strategy
- 1. Reinforcing U.S. Influence at a Time of Global Competition
- 2. Incentivizing Saudi Normalization With Israel
- 3. Counterbalancing Iran’s Expanding Military Capacity
- 4. Preparing for a Post-U.S.-Centric Middle East
- Israel’s Reaction: Cautious but Calculated
- The Wider Implications: A New Gulf Security Era
- 1. Accelerated Gulf Military Modernization
- 2. Greater Integration of Regional Defense Systems
- 3. Diminished Dependence on External Powers
- 4. Intensified Competition With Iran
- The F-35 as the Opening Gambit, Not the Final Move
- Toward a New Strategic Order
- Conclusion: The Saudi F-35 Deal Is a Harbinger of a Larger Realignment
If finalized, the move would represent the first time the U.S. has agreed to sell its most advanced stealth fighter to a Gulf monarchy other than the UAE, and it would cement Saudi Arabia’s role as a central pillar in a new security architecture being shaped by shifting alliances, energy markets, and great-power competition.
But the F-35 approval is far more than a weapons sale—it is the opening chapter of a larger geopolitical project that could reshape the Middle East for decades.
A Decision Years in the Making
Saudi Arabia has been requesting F-35s since the United Arab Emirates secured preliminary access as part of the 2020 Abraham Accords. Yet the deal stalled over concerns about:
- Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME)
- Human rights controversies following the Khashoggi killing
- Congressional skepticism about Riyadh’s regional interventions
- Fears of sensitive technology falling into the wrong hands
President Donald Trump’s renewed openness to approving the sale signals a break with these earlier hesitations and suggests a recalculated U.S. strategy toward the kingdom—one rooted in shared strategic interests rather than past frictions.
Why Saudi Arabia Wants the F-35—and What It Means
For MBS, acquiring the F-35 is about more than prestige. It is a foundational piece of Saudi Arabia’s long-term military transformation under Vision 2030.
Key Saudi motivations include:
1. Strategic Deterrence Against Iran
The F-35’s stealth capabilities, advanced radar, and intelligence-gathering systems would give Saudi Arabia a significant edge in countering Iran’s missile programs, drone arsenals, and regional proxies.
2. Regional Leadership and Symbolic Power
Being among the few militaries in the world to operate the F-35 elevates Saudi Arabia’s status as a top-tier defense power.
3. Military Modernization and Technology Transfer
MBS aims to localize 50% of defense procurement by 2030. The F-35 program could open pathways to maintenance, supply-chain participation, and advanced aerospace development inside the kingdom.
4. Alignment with U.S. Security Architecture
Despite Saudi Arabia’s growing ties with China and Russia, the F-35 symbolizes a deep strategic alignment with Washington—one Riyadh still values for long-term stability.
A Shift in Washington’s Middle East Strategy
Approving the F-35 sale is not an isolated policy decision—it reflects a broader realignment in U.S. regional calculations.
1. Reinforcing U.S. Influence at a Time of Global Competition
With China making aggressive inroads in the Middle East, including brokering agreements and offering arms deals, Washington recognizes the need to anchor strategic partners more firmly within its sphere.
2. Incentivizing Saudi Normalization With Israel
U.S. officials have long viewed Saudi–Israel normalization as the crown jewel of Middle East diplomacy. Advanced weapons sales are a powerful bargaining chip.
3. Counterbalancing Iran’s Expanding Military Capacity
Iran’s drone exports to Russia, expanding missile programs, and regional militias have shifted the strategic equation. Empowering Gulf states is part of Washington’s deterrence strategy.
4. Preparing for a Post-U.S.-Centric Middle East
The region is moving toward multipolarity. By enabling key allies like Saudi Arabia to assume greater security responsibilities, Washington reduces its future military burdens.
Israel’s Reaction: Cautious but Calculated
Israel’s position will be central. Traditionally, the U.S. ensures Israel maintains a qualitative military edge in the region. But the geopolitical landscape has changed.
Israel may tolerate an F-35 sale if:
- The U.S. provides additional enhancements to Israel’s own military edge
- Saudi normalization becomes plausible
- Operational restrictions or downgrade packages are negotiated
- Joint U.S.–Saudi–Israeli defense initiatives are developed behind the scenes
The quiet, pragmatic coordination between Saudi and Israeli security services in recent years suggests a growing willingness to reshape traditional boundaries.
The Wider Implications: A New Gulf Security Era
If completed, the Saudi F-35 deal could trigger a series of cascading changes across the Middle East.
1. Accelerated Gulf Military Modernization
Qatar, Kuwait, and even Bahrain may pursue next-generation aircraft to keep pace with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
2. Greater Integration of Regional Defense Systems
The U.S. has long pushed for a Gulf-wide missile defense network. Advanced platforms like the F-35 make such integration more feasible.
3. Diminished Dependence on External Powers
A more self-reliant Saudi Arabia could shift regional burdens away from Washington, aligning with U.S. long-term strategic priorities.
4. Intensified Competition With Iran
Tehran may respond through expanded drone programs, missile upgrades, or deeper security cooperation with Russia and China.
The F-35 as the Opening Gambit, Not the Final Move
The approval of the F-35 is widely viewed as step one in a larger geopolitical vision that includes:
- A potential U.S.–Saudi defense pact
- Saudi–Israel normalization under U.S. mediation
- Expanded technology cooperation
- Joint counterterrorism and missile-defense initiatives
- Deeper integration of Middle East economies with Western markets
In many ways, the F-35 is the symbolic gateway to an entirely new Middle Eastern security architecture.
Toward a New Strategic Order
The coming years may determine whether the region moves toward:
- A U.S.–led bloc of Gulf states aligned with Israel
or - A multipolar environment where China, Russia, and the U.S. compete for influence
The F-35 decision is a signal that Washington wants to shape the first scenario.
Conclusion: The Saudi F-35 Deal Is a Harbinger of a Larger Realignment
Donald Trump’s willingness to approve F-35 sales to Saudi Arabia does not merely open the door to advanced weapons—it signals the start of a profound strategic shift. For MBS, it represents validation of his vision for Saudi Arabia as a leading military power. For the United States, it strengthens its role in a region where global competitors are gaining ground.
And for the Middle East, it may mark the beginning of a new era—one defined by advanced military technology, shifting alliances, normalization diplomacy, and a major reshaping of the geopolitical balance.
The F-35s are only the beginning.
