China’s surging electric vehicle (EV) adoption is beginning to make a measurable impact on the nation’s oil demand, signaling a pivotal shift in the country’s energy consumption patterns. With EV sales expected to surpass 10 million units in 2025, analysts forecast a noticeable slowdown in the growth rate of gasoline and diesel consumption.
According to recent data, EVs accounted for nearly 40% of new passenger car sales in the first half of 2025. This unprecedented momentum is curbing the need for refined oil products, particularly in urban transportation sectors. Industry experts now estimate that oil demand growth in China could dip below 1% annually by 2026—down from 3–5% averages just a few years ago.
The development marks a significant milestone in China’s dual goals of reducing carbon emissions and strengthening energy security. However, it also poses challenges for global oil exporters who have long relied on China as a primary growth market.
While industrial and petrochemical oil usage remains strong, the rising popularity of EVs is clearly beginning to reshape long-term demand dynamics in the world’s second-largest economy.
